XXIV. THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN | PAKISTAN AFFAIRS | CSS EXAM | CSS PMS TIMES

Introduction

The war in Afghanistan, which began with the Soviet invasion in 1979, has had profound repercussions for the region, especially Pakistan. Over four decades, the Afghan conflict has evolved from a Cold War battleground to a theater of global terrorism and insurgency. Post-2014, with NATO’s withdrawal and the resurgence of the Taliban, Pakistan faces intricate challenges in its socio-political, economic, and security spheres. Understanding the historical context, the interplay of regional and global actors, and the enduring implications of this protracted conflict is crucial for assessing Pakistan’s position in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Historical Context of the Afghan War

The Soviet Invasion (1979-1989)

Background: The Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan in 1979 to support the communist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) government, facing a rebellion by Islamist mujahideen.

Role of Pakistan: Pakistan, under General Zia-ul-Haq, became a frontline state in the U.S.-led proxy war against the Soviet Union. It hosted over three million Afghan refugees and facilitated the training and arming of mujahideen fighters with financial and logistical support from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

The Civil War (1989-1996)

Aftermath of Soviet Withdrawal: Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, Afghanistan descended into a civil war among various mujahideen factions.

Pakistan’s Role: Pakistan supported the rise of the Taliban in the mid-1990s, considering it a strategic partner to secure its western border and influence in Afghanistan.

The Post-9/11 Era (2001-2014)

U.S.-Led Invasion: The 9/11 attacks prompted the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, overthrowing the Taliban regime. Pakistan joined the U.S. “War on Terror” as a key ally, but its role was marked by accusations of harboring militant sanctuaries.

Impact on Pakistan: The spillover of violence and the rise of domestic insurgencies, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), destabilized Pakistan, claiming thousands of lives.

Post-2014 Era: The NATO Withdrawal and Taliban Resurgence

Withdrawal of NATO Forces

Significance: The 2014 drawdown of NATO combat forces marked a shift in the Afghan conflict, leaving Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to combat the Taliban.

Taliban Resurgence: The Taliban steadily gained ground, culminating in their return to power in August 2021 after the complete U.S. withdrawal.

Challenges to Pakistan

The post-2014 period has intensified Pakistan’s socio-economic and security dilemmas, complicated by shifting global alignments and regional rivalries.

Impact on Pakistan

1. Security Challenges

Terrorism and Insurgency:

The Afghan conflict has exacerbated cross-border militancy. Groups like the TTP found safe havens in Afghanistan, launching attacks within Pakistan.

The porous border facilitated the smuggling of arms and drugs, further destabilizing Pakistan’s internal security.

Durand Line Disputes:

The Afghanistan-Pakistan border, demarcated by the Durand Line, remains contentious, with Afghanistan historically refusing to recognize it. This has strained relations and fueled cross-border tensions.

2. Refugee Crisis

Prolonged Refugee Presence:

Pakistan continues to host around 1.4 million registered Afghan refugees, with many more undocumented. The prolonged refugee presence has strained Pakistan’s economy, infrastructure, and social fabric.

Post-2014 Influx:

The resurgence of violence post-2014 led to new waves of refugees, further burdening Pakistan’s resources.

3. Economic Impact

Costs of Conflict:

Pakistan has incurred billions of dollars in economic losses due to the spillover effects of the Afghan conflict, including terrorism, infrastructure damage, and disrupted trade.

Opportunities for Trade:

A stable Afghanistan presents opportunities for regional trade and connectivity. However, instability hampers Pakistan’s efforts to benefit from initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) energy project.

4. Diplomatic and Regional Dynamics

India’s Role in Afghanistan:

India’s growing presence in Afghanistan, including investments in infrastructure and influence in Afghan political circles, has been a concern for Pakistan, exacerbating regional rivalries.

Taliban Relations:

Pakistan’s historical ties with the Taliban complicate its position. While Islamabad hoped for a friendly Taliban regime, managing the group’s unpredictable behavior poses challenges.

5. Social and Ideological Impacts

Radicalization and Sectarianism:

The Afghan war has fueled radical ideologies and sectarianism within Pakistan, particularly in border areas.

Humanitarian Issues:

The prolonged conflict has worsened human rights conditions, with women and minorities in both Afghanistan and Pakistan bearing the brunt of instability.

Challenges in the Post-2014 Era

1. Border Management

Fencing the Durand Line:

Pakistan initiated border fencing to curb cross-border movement of militants. However, the move has faced resistance from Afghanistan and local tribes.

Smuggling and Informal Trade:

Cross-border smuggling remains a challenge, undermining Pakistan’s formal economy.

2. Countering Domestic Militancy

Rise of TTP:

The TTP resurgence has emerged as a significant threat. Despite military operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, eliminating the group’s networks remains challenging.

ISIS-K Threat:

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) has also gained a foothold in Afghanistan, posing additional threats to regional stability.

3. Balancing Global and Regional Alliances

Shifts in U.S.-Pakistan Relations:

The U.S. withdrawal and growing strategic alignment between the U.S. and India have strained Pakistan’s relations with Washington.

China’s Role:

China’s interest in a stable Afghanistan aligns with Pakistan’s economic goals. However, managing Beijing’s expectations amid regional instability is a delicate task.

4. Economic and Infrastructure Development

Rebuilding Trade Links:

Stability in Afghanistan is critical for Pakistan’s access to Central Asia. However, insecurity along trade routes remains a major impediment.

Refugee Repatriation:

Pakistan has struggled to repatriate Afghan refugees, facing both logistical and political challenges.

Opportunities Amid Challenges

1. Regional Connectivity

Afghanistan as a Trade Hub:

A peaceful Afghanistan can facilitate Pakistan’s ambitions for regional trade and energy connectivity, including through CPEC and TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline projects.

2. Diplomatic Engagement

Mediating Peace:

Pakistan has positioned itself as a key player in facilitating intra-Afghan dialogue and peace talks between the Taliban and international stakeholders.

Balancing Regional Relations:

Strengthening ties with neighboring countries like China, Iran, and Central Asian states can enhance Pakistan’s geopolitical influence.

Conclusion

The Afghan war since 1979 has been a defining factor in shaping Pakistan’s socio-political and security landscape. Post-2014, the challenges for Pakistan have grown more complex with the resurgence of the Taliban, the rise of transnational militancy, and evolving regional dynamics. While these challenges threaten Pakistan’s internal stability and economic progress, they also present opportunities for regional connectivity and strategic alliances. For Pakistan to navigate the post-2014 era effectively, it must adopt a balanced approach that prioritizes security, fosters economic integration, and leverages its geopolitical position for long-term stability in both Afghanistan and the broader region.